Random Fractals and the Stock Market

Surrogates of the Stock Market - Trading Time Example 1

As our first example, we take the generator with turning points (1/4, 1/2) and (3/4, 1/4).
First, we compute the price and clock time increments, and observe this is not a unifractal generator.
Here is the price and clock time graph, along with the graph of first differences. This is just an illustration, not part of the method of graphing price vs trading time.
Next, we find the trading time generator.
Here is the trading time and clock time graph, along with the graph of first differences. This is just an illustration, not part of the method of graphing price vs trading time.
Here we relate trading time to price volatility. This is just an illustration, not part of the method of graphing price vs trading time.
Now we compute the price and trading time generator.
Finally, here is the price and trading time graph, along with the graph of first differences.
Recall independent increments and short tails are the two principal characteristics of Brownian motion that do not agree with observations of stock market behavior.
Fractional Brownian motion has dependent increments but also short tails; Levy flights have long tails but independent increments.
Visual inspection of the cartoon difference graphs suggests that the cartoon models have both dependent increments and long tails.
The conversion from clock time to trading time treats these features in two different ways: dependence remains in the price record, while the long tails are absorbed into the multifractal nature of trading time.

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